Cash-future difference: why the index and its future trade at different prices
The Nasdaq-100 and NQ follow the same market, but they don't trade at the same price: NQ usually trades well above the index. That gap is the cash-future difference, also called the basis. It decides where an index level — such as yesterday's closing price of the index — belongs on a futures chart. This page explains what it is, why it exists, how it changes over the quarter, and how Basics handles it for you.
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Part of Basics
Free TradingView indicator with all session, week and month levels for index, futures and CFD charts.
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Free TradingView indicator that marks earlier closes, opens and gaps the market has not traded back to — on index, futures and CFD charts.
Install Untested Levels (free) →What it is
An index — for example the Nasdaq-100 or the FTSE 100 — is a number calculated from the prices of its stocks. You cannot trade it directly. Traders trade it through a future (for example NQ, or its micro MNQ) or a CFD. The future and the index move together, almost tick for tick — but not at the same price.
The gap between the two is the cash-future difference: the price of the future minus the price of the index. Traders also call it the basis or the premium; "cash" simply means the index itself.
| Nasdaq-100 → NQ | Index 29,184.88 · NQ 194 points higher (≈ 0.67 %) |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 → ES | Index 7,658.74 · ES 44 points higher (≈ 0.57 %) |
| Dow → YM | Index 51,990.05 · YM 218 points higher (≈ 0.42 %) |
| DAX → FDAX | Index 25,623.78 · FDAX 131 points higher (≈ 0.51 %) |
In points the gaps look very different per market, but as a share of the index they are similar: roughly half a percent, about two months before these contracts expire.
Why the future trades at a different price
Buying a future instead of the stocks themselves has two effects. You don't pay for the stocks today, so your money keeps earning interest until the future expires. But you also miss the dividends the stocks pay in the meantime. The price of the future balances the two:
Future ≈ index + interest until expiry − dividends until expiry. This is called the cost of carry.
- Interest higher than dividends: the future trades above the index. That was the case for NQ, ES and YM on 16 October 2026, in the table above.
- Dividends higher than interest: the future can trade below the index. That happened on high-dividend indices in years of near-zero interest rates.
- The DAX is different. It is a performance index: dividends are reinvested into the index, so there is nothing to subtract. The premium of FDAX is almost pure interest.
How it changes over the quarter
- It shrinks towards expiry. Every day there is less time left to earn interest or miss dividends, so the gap gets smaller. At expiry the future settles at the index price, and the gap is gone. In the chart, NQ's difference fell from about 150 points at the end of July to about 23 in mid-September; FDAX's from about 90 to 4.
- It jumps at the roll. Most index futures expire every quarter (the AEX future every month). The continuous chart (NQ1!, FDAX1!) then switches to the next contract, which has three more months to run — and a three-months-bigger gap. NQ jumped from 23 to 315 points on 15 September, FDAX from 4 to 186 on 18 September.
- It wobbles from day to day. Changes in interest-rate and dividend expectations, and the future not tracking the index perfectly from minute to minute, move the gap by several points a day — for NQ in early August from 126 to 148 and back to 123 within three days.
Why it matters on a futures chart
Many of the most-watched levels are set on the index: its official opening price, its previous close, its previous high and low. Draw such a level on a futures chart at the index price, and it lands at the wrong place — off by the full cash-future difference.
An example: in the last minute before the close on 16 October the Nasdaq-100 stood at 29,184.88 (official close 29,187.55), and NQ traded 194 points higher, so on an NQ chart the price where the index closed belongs at about 29,382. Draw it at 29,187.55 and your line sits 194 points too low, at a price where nothing happened.
See it happen: in The level you can't see, NQ runs straight through the Nasdaq-100 close at the index price — and stops at exactly the converted price, about 200 points higher.
It works the other way round too. A level set on the future — such as the future's previous close or its pre-market high and low — needs the difference taken off before it means anything on an index or CFD chart.
How Basics and Untested Levels handle it
- They measure the difference themselves and keep it current — through the daily wobble, the shrink towards expiry and the jump at the roll. You never enter a number.
- On a futures chart (for example RTY, or a micro such as M2K) the index levels — RTH O index, PsC index, PsH index, PsL index and the other index lines — are converted to futures prices.
- On an index or CFD chart the index levels are shown as they are, and the future levels — PsC future, PsS future, PsH future, PsL future, the pre-market range and the other future lines — are converted to index prices.
- Untested Levels does the same for its levels: untested closes, opening prices and index gaps are converted to futures prices on a futures chart, future gaps to index prices on an index or CFD chart.
- The label stays the same. PsC index on an NQ chart is still the Nasdaq-100's close — plotted at the price where it belongs on NQ.
Around the quarterly roll
At the roll the index levels themselves don't change, but their place on the futures chart does: on the new contract the price where the index closed belongs tens to hundreds of points higher (for NQ at the September 2026 roll: 315 instead of 23 points above the index). Basics and Untested Levels follow the switch by themselves. B-ADJ on or off doesn't change the levels, only where the older candles sit; on mini, micro and nano charts, lines can be briefly off in the days around the roll (see contract months and rolls).
Frequently asked questions
Is the cash-future difference the same as fair value?
Not quite. Fair value is the theoretical difference, calculated from interest rates and expected dividends. The cash-future difference is the gap that actually trades. They are usually close; when market reports say futures trade "above fair value", they mean the actual gap is bigger than the theoretical one.
Why is the difference on the Dow bigger in points than on the S&P 500?
Because the Dow's price is much higher: around 52,000 against around 7,700. As a percentage of the index the Dow's difference is actually the smallest of the four, because its stocks pay relatively high dividends.
Can the future trade below the index?
Yes. When the expected dividends until expiry are worth more than the interest, the future trades at a discount. That happened on high-dividend indices in years of near-zero interest rates. Basics and Untested Levels handle a negative difference the same way as a positive one.
Why not just add a fixed number to the index level?
Because the difference keeps changing. In the chart above, NQ's difference fell by almost 4 points per trading day on average, wobbled by more than that from day to day, and jumped by almost 300 points at the roll. A number from Monday is already off by Friday.
Do I need to change anything at the quarterly roll?
No. Basics and Untested Levels follow the switch to the new contract by themselves. Adjust for contract changes (B-ADJ) can be on or off: it only moves older candles, not the levels. Expect lines on mini, micro and nano charts to be briefly off in the days around the roll.
Does this apply to CFDs?
Index CFDs, for example US2000 or UK100, follow the index, not the future. So on a CFD chart the index levels apply directly, and Basics converts the future levels with the cash-future difference.
See index levels at the right price on your futures chart
Basics and Untested Levels are free on TradingView. They measure the cash-future difference themselves and draw index levels on futures charts such as NQ or FDXM — and future levels on index and CFD charts — at the right price.